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Should the UK Threat Level Be Raised? Exploring Concerns and Considerations

Writer's picture: David ChadwickDavid Chadwick

Hey folks,


Blogging isn't something I have thought about doing before, well, to be more specific, I have thought about it, but I have just been putting it off. I have decided to cave however, and am now sitting down by phone light to write my first one.

I thought I would start with something that has been on my mind for a while, 'should the UK Threat Level Be Raised?'


Now, I know the words "threat level" might sound a bit frightening, but fear not, I am going to break it down for anyone that doesn't understand what it means.

First things first, before I get in to thinking about whether we should raise the threat level, lets look at what it all means.


It's essentially a way for security experts to communicate how likely it is that a terrorist attack will occur in the UK. The threat level is assessed by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC), which is part of MI5, the UK's domestic counter-intelligence and security agency.

For anyone that didn't know. How do they come up with this threat level?" well, it is based on a variety of things such as current intelligence, terrorist capability, intent, and recent events both domestically and internationally. It's a little bit like my child that has patiently spent the last week putting together a 1000 piece jigsaw. Although each piece of the jigsaw represents information coming from different sources.


There are five threat levels in the UK, each with its own distinctive meaning:

  1. Low: This means that an attack is unlikely.

  2. Moderate: There's a possibility of an attack, but it's not highly likely.

  3. Substantial: This indicates that an attack is a strong possibility.

  4. Severe: An attack is highly likely.

  5. Critical: This is the highest level and means that an attack is expected imminently.

The threat level can change quickly though based on new information and developments.

When the threat level is raised, it's a reminder for us all to stay vigilant and report any suspicious activity.


So what changes when the threat level is raised? Well, you might see increased security measures in certain places. The last time the UK went to 'critical' we saw military presence in certain parts and venues, such as airports, for example.


With things as they are all over the world right now, and based on the fact that the UK have played an active part in many of the conflicts abroad, it seems only natural to me that the threat would naturally be higher. Add in to the equation that there have been massive spikes in both Anti Semitic and Islamophobic hate crimes since October 7th last year, and its not a good recipe.


If the threat is higher why would there be concerns about raising the threat level? Well, there are a few things to consider:

  • Intelligence: One of the main reasons for raising the threat level is usually an increase in credible intelligence suggesting a heightened risk of an attack. However, intelligence isn't always clear, and there can be debates within security circles about the reliability of the information.

  • Public Panic: Raising the threat level, especially to the highest level of "Critical," can cause concern and lead to increased anxiety and fear

  • Resources: The need for all of the additional resources can strain put a strain on Police and security agencies.

So, where does that leave us? Well, it's ultimately a balancing act and Security agencies must weigh the available intelligence, the potential impact on the public, and the need for proactive measures.


In conclusion, the decision to raise the UK threat level is a complex one that involves careful consideration of multiple factors. There are many reasons to suggest that the risk is higher, but whether it is necessary to raise the National threat level, I don't know. My general gut feeling is, yes, we should, but I hope I am wrong.


The prevent guy/ Prevent duty/ Trainer/ Workshops and assemblies
The prevent guy



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